内压作用下复合材料修复裂纹管道的失效分析

为准确评估在内压作用下纤维复合材料修复含裂纹管道的有效性及失效压力,建立复合材料修复后裂纹管道的失效数值模型。该数值模型通过扩展有限元法模拟管道裂纹的扩展,利用cohesive单元模拟胶层的脱粘失效,复合材料的失效通过最大应力失效准则进行判定。通过静水压爆裂试验对所提失效数值模型进行验证,实验结果与数值计算结果具有较好的一致性。失效数值分析结果表明:当内压增大至一定值后,未修复管道的初始裂纹沿轴向及壁厚方向逐渐扩展,进而使得管道内壁单元扩展成真实裂纹,此时真实裂纹贯穿整个壁厚方向,即认为裂纹管道发生爆裂失效,爆裂失效压力随初始裂纹半长呈指数形式下降。复合材料修复裂纹管道的不同修复工况呈现相同的失效模式:在单调递增的内压作用下,管道内表面首先出现黏结裂纹,而后其外表面裂纹张开趋势急剧上升,使得复合材料层应力急剧上升,达到极限强度而失效。且对于不同的初始裂纹尺寸,存在对应的复合材料缠绕层数临界值。     

失效概率函数求解的高效算法

结合基于分数矩约束的极大熵方法和替代模型法,发展了一种失效概率函数求解的高效算法。所提算法的基本思路是利用自主学习的迭代Kriging方法来构造失效概率函数,即采用较少的训练样本来构造粗糙的失效概率函数,在此基础上通过添加新的违反学习函数约束的样本来更新失效概率函数,直到达到精度要求。对于每一个分布参数的训练样本点,所提方法采用分数矩约束的极大熵法来求解相应的失效概率样本。由于分数矩的计算采用了高效的降维积分,并且由于分数矩约束下极大熵法中优化策略高效地逼近了响应的概率密度函数,从而使得失效概率样本能够被高效高精度地估计出来。为了检验所提方法的精度及效率,给出了两个算例,对比了所提方法与已有的失效概率函数求解的Bayes公式法及Monte Carlo法等,结果表明,所提方法适用于求解复杂的功能函数问题,且在满足精度要求的基础上大大降低了计算量。     

导弹遥测故障的GM-Verhulst-SCGM预测算法

遥测故障预测是保障导弹遥测系统可靠性的基础。根据导弹遥测故障的历史数据,结合GM(1,1)模型、Verhucst模型和SCGM(1,1)c模型构建了导弹遥测故障的GM-Verhulst-SCGM组合灰色预测模型,按照预测有效度算法取得组合预测模型的权重系数。选用导弹遥测故障的训练组实际值作为原始数据,分别利用各预测模型估算对比组导弹遥测故障数据。预测结果表明,相比单一预测模型,组合灰色预测模型具备更高的故障预测精度。在验证组合灰色预测模型可行性的基础上,进一步估算了同一型号导弹未来时序的遥测故障数据,为相关部门及时改善导弹遥测技术及避免导弹故障提供理论及方法借鉴。     

Analysis of down times of jib cranes—A stochastic approach

In this paper a case study dealing with the maintenance problem of jib cranes is presented. A jib crane is viewed as a complex system whose performance is observed as a single realization over period of time. After pointing out limitations of existing stochastic models to analyze the observed realization a new family of bivariate stochastic processes is introduced. The data of jib crane is analyzed using new model and cross‐validated using part of the data set. It is noted that the new family of stochastic processes is useful to analyze bivariate data where one of the variables is finitely valued and the other is nonnegative and continuous. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 231–243, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10006     

四参数寿命分布S(α,β,λ,μ)

本文提出一个具有密度函数 (α>0,β≠0,λ>0,μ≥0)的四参数寿命分布S(α,β,λ,μ),然后证明了它的一些基本性质,据形状参数对(α,β)的不同取值,找出了失效率λ(t)关于时间t的五种变化规律:不变;递减;递增;先增后减;先减后增,并显示出不变失效率是其余四种失效率当(α,β)→(1,1)时的极限。     

以可用度为目标的功能检测模型

依据产品潜在故障的概念,将产品划分为“正常”、“潜在故障”和“功能故障”三种状态,并将产品从“新的”发展到“潜在故障”时间间隔和从“潜在故障”发展到“功能故障”时间间隔分别作为随机变量进行处理,利用可靠性数学的方法,建立了以可用度为目标的功能检测模型,包括基本模型和实际应用中变化时的模型,举例给出了模型输出结果的特征和敏感性。     

舰用燃气轮机起动失效分析

以舰用燃气轮机为对象,在简述燃气轮机起动过程的基础上,分析其起动失效的各种原因,提出解决的方法,为燃气轮机的操作及维护提供参考．     

模糊关系系统的串联补偿解耦方法

本文在分析耦合特性的基础上,绐出了串联补偿解耦方法的设计步骤和实现模糊解耦的控制系统结构。仿真结果表明,本方法控制效果和解耦效果比较显著。     

建立不工作失效率理论预测模型的具体方法

本文介绍了建立不工作失效率理论预测模型的具体方法和途径,提出检验数据是否可用的五条标准,并讨论了模型建立过程中应注意的几个特殊因素。     

On the behavior and shape of mixture failure rates from a family of IFR Weibull distributions

Populations of many types of component are heterogeneous and often consist of a small number of different subpopulations. This is called a mixture and it arises in a number of situations. For example, a majority of products in industrial populations are mixtures of defective items with shorter lifetimes and standard items with longer lifetimes. It is a well‐known result that distributions with decreasing failure rates are closed under mixture. However, mixtures of distributions with increasing failure rates are not easily classifiable. If the subpopulations involved in the mixture have increasing failure rates, there might be some upward movement in the mixture and later a general downward pull towards the strongest component. Little work has been done in describing the shape of mixture failure rates when all subpopulations do not have decreasing failure rate. In this paper, we present general results that describe the shape and behavior of a failure rate of a mixture obtained from two Weibull subpopulations with strictly increasing failure rates. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004